Formula One returns after the summer break, with Hamilton leading by 19 points. Arriving in Spa, F1 returns to one of the greatest circuits in the world to get the second part of the season underway.
With the weather forecast suggesting the race will be hot and dry, tyre choice will be critical. Yet again the top three teams are split on tyre choice, with Mercedes opting for just 4 sets of supersoft tyres for each driver. Red Bull have chosen 6 sets of supersofts and Ferrari one more, with 7. Hamilton has 6 available sets of softs, with Rosberg and the two Ferraris with 5. The Red Bulls have just 3. In terms of medium tyres, Ferrari have opted for just one set per driver, Hamilton has 3 sets and the Red Bulls and Rosberg, 4.
With Mercedes going conservative on their tyre selection, the other teams may have an opportunity to challenge them with a more aggressive strategy in the race. Starting at the back of the grid due to penalties, Hamilton may opt out of qualifying therefore giving him more sets of fresh tyres for the race to help him fight through the pack.
Mercedes
Dominating the first half of the season, Mercedes should be strong this weekend. However, Hamilton will be taking engine penalties this weekend due to the unreliability earlier this year. This means he is likely to be starting from the back of the grid, making it a race of damage limitation. Meanwhile, Rosberg should have a good chance of winning, although Red Bull will be likely to put pressure on him this weekend, hoping for a repeat of their victory here in 2014.
Ferrari
Dropping behind Red Bull in the constructors’ championship, Ferrari hope to remain in contention for the second-place position. The recent departure of technical director James Allison has raised questions over the stability of the team and their ability to improve their performance. Although they have switched most of their attention to 2017, they will be bringing some small upgrades in the rest of this season.
Williams
Struggling so far this season, Williams have been unable to make significant upgrades. This has resulted in them dropping to fourth in the constructors’ and they now run the risk of falling behind Force India as well. Spa has suited them well in the past, the long straights offering them an advantage over their opposition.
Red Bull
The closest race to a home race for Verstappen, he will receive a lot of support from the fans. Since his promotion to Red Bull, he has out-performed his more experience teammate. In recent races, he has even been able to beat the Mercedes of Rosberg. With Hamilton taking penalties, this will give him an opportunity to challenge for victory. However, his teammate will also be hoping to secure victory, which will be his first win of the season, having missed out in Monaco after his team made a mistake.
Force India
Performing well in the first half of the season, Force India have benefited from superior tyre management. This has allowed them to close up to within 15 points of Williams in the constructors’. A strong performance here will help them further close the gap and put them in contention for 4th in the standings. Last year, Perez had a successful race, challenging for the lead and eventually finishing fifth. However, for his teammate, the weekend was a disappointment after he failed to make the start with a power unit issue.
Toro Rosso
Struggling since his demotion to Toro Rosso, Kvyat has been constantly outperformed by his teammate. With no confirmation on his contract for next year, he needs some good performances in order to secure his drive for 2017. Currently 36 points behind Force India, Toro Rosso are beginning to drop down the order struggling with their old spec Ferrari engine.
Renault
A circuit requiring a strong power unit along with high-downforce, Renault are likely to struggle this weekend. With their focus primarily on next season, they are unlikely to bring updates to the car for the rest of the season and are expected to finish 9th in the constructors’ championship.
Sauber
With the financial future of the team secured, Sauber are now able to bring upgrades for their cars. This weekend they are bringing a new front wing, hoping this will improve the aerodynamics. With no points yet on the table for Sauber, these updates will be crucial to prevent them from having yet another season with no points scored.
McLaren
It is likely to be a tough race for McLaren, at a circuit requiring a strong power unit. Alonso will also be taking a grid penalty for new engine parts, which will drop him to the back. It is unlikely he will make much progress from there and reach the points.
With just 3 points seperating the team from Toro Rosso, they will want to finish ahead of them in the race although it looks as if Button will be the only driver of the two with a chance of claiming vital championship points.
Manor
Replacing Haryanto at Manor, Ocon will be making his F1 debut this weekend. Having won the GP3 championship in 2015 and beating Verstappen to the F3 title in the previous season, he looks to be a promising talent for the future. With him and Wehrlein both a part of Mercedes’ driver program, Manor are clearly becoming the junior Mercedes team for new drivers.
Haas
With 22 points seperating their nearest championship challengers, Haas are likely to finish their first season 8th overall. This means they have switched the majority of their attention to 2017, which will probably mean they will make very little progress in the remainder of this season. This weekend will be another challenge for the team, especially with the unpredictable weather and difficult circuit.