Following a dramatic engine failure in Malaysia, Hamilton now sits 23 points behind his teammate in the championship. With just 5 races remaining, it is crucial for Hamilton to have some strong races if he is to beat Rosberg for the third time.
Failing to win this race will put Hamilton in a very difficult position going into the final races of the season. If Rosberg wins and Hamilton is second, he will need to win all four of the remaining races to seal the title win. However, a DNF for Rosberg would put Hamilton back into contention.
Here in Japan, it is Hamilton who has the best record of the – having won here three times before. Rosberg, in contrast, has never won here.
Vettel strong in Suzuka?
Since Formula One returned to Suzuka in 2009, Vettel has been on the podium in every race. Slipping behind Red Bull in the constructors’, the 1-2 for their rivals in Malaysia has given Ferrari a huge challenge going into the final races of 2016. So a strong race for Vettel could give them a chance of overcoming the 46 point deficit they currently have.
However, it is going to be a difficult job. Vettel received a 3-place grid penalty for the collision with Rosberg in Malaysia, so even if he qualifies well on Saturday, it is unlikely he will start the race in the top five. To add to this, Ferraris performance in previous races has been disappointing.
Raikkonen, therefore, is the most likely of the pair to take the fight to the Red Bulls, also with a strong track record here. He has taken five podiums, including one victory here previously.
Vettel made it on to the podium in 2015, but it looks like it will be tough to make it there this year.
Wet weather likely during the weekend
The weather forecast suggests that the chance of rain for qualifying is very high and it is also likely to be wet on race day. There is a significant risk of “rainy, slick conditions”, the likelihood of rain on Saturday is suggested to be as high as 80%.
Practice on Friday looks to be dry, but thunderstorms and rain showers are expected across the rest of the weekend. This weather could have a significant impact on the race results, leveling the field and putting the focus very much on driver ability.
Top teams split on tyre choice
The Suzuka circuit is notoriously hard on tyres, with degradation usually high. Last year, Hamilton won the race on a two stop strategy. However, this year, Pirelli are bringing the soft tyre for the first time, which is likely to mix up the strategies.
Unusually, the 3 top teams have all opted for alternative strategies. Verstappen and Ricciardo both have 4 sets of the harder tyre each, Hamilton and Vettel have three. Raikkonen and Rosberg have chosen just 2 sets of the hardest compound. With high degradation often an issue for the teams, Red Bull could be on the optimum tyre strategy for the weekend.
However, with rain forecast over the whole weekend, this is likely to play a small part in proceedings as the teams are likely to have to revert to the wet weather tyres for most of the running.
Alonso to keep new engine
Trialing the new engine in Malaysia, Alonso will run the upgraded Honda power unit throughout this weekend. This weekend is an important for McLaren, as it is the home race of their engine supplier. So there will be a lot of pressure to perform and secure another strong result for the team who have improved greatly across the course of the season.
Jenson Button will not be using the new engine, as the team don’t want to take the engine penalty in Japan, opting instead to switch at the next race, in the USA